Post by fastwalker on Nov 13, 2004 19:09:23 GMT -5
:oSlow Wkend? Lets try this for fun...
« Thread started on: Today at 1:47pm » <br>
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Hey everyone. This is only my second post. I've been a shareholder since July '04 and I've been reading this board for about a month. First, let me thank everyone for making this such a great board. Second, let me thank GeorgeBurns for, well....being george. Third, let me thank Gerbs for his recent post (see below) which got me fired up all over again! And finally, lemme indulge my hopes by asking you all the following: If you had to take your best guess based on everything we know (and think we know), how long do you think it will take for the pps to go to .12 as described in Gerbs recent (and hopefully modest) post?
I realize some of you may not like this type of guesswork, but I'd love to hear from some of my fellow investors on this one. Thanks, and have great weekend!
~Squirrel
Gerbs recent post:
on Nov 12th, 2004, 11:36pm, LovinDiamonds wrote:Finally, Debeers places a value of 40 to 80 billion on their 58,000 acres. If we assume CMKM owns 2 million acres divided by 58,000 acres, the result is 34.5 rounded. Then multiply 34.5 times 40 billion and the result...1.38 trillion dollars. Coincidence? The industry and the market is willing to bestow the lower end of Debeers estimate on their acreage to CMKM. And why not? The word has leaked out about the magnetic survey results. It is plainly impossible to keep that type of information under wraps. Too many eyes saw that the final map displaying the hundreds of kimberlite bodies and at least several of gigantic proportions.
Back in the days of the official board I used to beat the drum about acreage, DeBeers 58000 and its' valuation, how CMKX claims were worth $X per share, yadda, yadda, yadda. Haven't forgotten that, just hadn't been thinking about it lately.
Here's the math I used to use, updated to reflect worst case OS scenario.
$40 billion - Debeers low-end claim
58,000 ----- divided by DeBeers acreage
----------
$689,655 -- claimed value of ONE ACRE
X 10% ----- let's just say our acres are worth only 10% as much
------------
$68,965 -----CMKX value per acre - 10% of a DeBeers acre
X 1,400,000 -- minimum number CMKX acres (could be 1.9mm)
-------------
$ 96,551,000,000 - theoretical value of CMKX claims at 10% per acre of DeBeers
800,000,000,000 - divided by worst case OS
-------------
$ 0.1206 ------ claims value per CMKX share
=======
Many have scoffed at the possibility of CMKX having such a high potential value based upon the acreage and such. But don't forget, while the big boys (DeBeers, et. al.) were scooping up 58,000 acres, our man was scooping up 25 to 50 times that number.
So while the numbers may seem daunting, and therefore perhaps a bit of a stretch, bear in mind that we ABSOLUTE FREAKING DWARF DeBeers in claims acreage and therefore the possibility exists that we could dwarf them in valuation, even valued at 10% of DeBeers per acre. That's right, even at 10% per acre. At that extreme low-end of the valuation range, CMKX could have a claims value of $965 billion for just the Saskatchewan claims alone. That's $0.12 per share worst case. And what if it's not worst case...
What if...
-CMKX claims are worth more than 10% of DeBeers claim per acre?
-We were to use the top-end of the DeBeers acreage valuation?
-CMKX has more than 1,400,000 acres (which they do)?
-CMKX had other assets, like a gold mine, a uranium JV?
-The OS is less than the worst case scenario?
-CMKX has been NSS'd out the wazoo?
-You get the idea!
If even one of these "what ifs" is true, then the $0.12 pps immediately becomes the low-end of the valuation range.
Once the market realizes this, once the big money moves in, once the NSS is dealt with (which the big money will force), sub-penny pps will be history.
JMHO, Gerbs
« Thread started on: Today at 1:47pm » <br>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey everyone. This is only my second post. I've been a shareholder since July '04 and I've been reading this board for about a month. First, let me thank everyone for making this such a great board. Second, let me thank GeorgeBurns for, well....being george. Third, let me thank Gerbs for his recent post (see below) which got me fired up all over again! And finally, lemme indulge my hopes by asking you all the following: If you had to take your best guess based on everything we know (and think we know), how long do you think it will take for the pps to go to .12 as described in Gerbs recent (and hopefully modest) post?
I realize some of you may not like this type of guesswork, but I'd love to hear from some of my fellow investors on this one. Thanks, and have great weekend!
~Squirrel
Gerbs recent post:
on Nov 12th, 2004, 11:36pm, LovinDiamonds wrote:Finally, Debeers places a value of 40 to 80 billion on their 58,000 acres. If we assume CMKM owns 2 million acres divided by 58,000 acres, the result is 34.5 rounded. Then multiply 34.5 times 40 billion and the result...1.38 trillion dollars. Coincidence? The industry and the market is willing to bestow the lower end of Debeers estimate on their acreage to CMKM. And why not? The word has leaked out about the magnetic survey results. It is plainly impossible to keep that type of information under wraps. Too many eyes saw that the final map displaying the hundreds of kimberlite bodies and at least several of gigantic proportions.
Back in the days of the official board I used to beat the drum about acreage, DeBeers 58000 and its' valuation, how CMKX claims were worth $X per share, yadda, yadda, yadda. Haven't forgotten that, just hadn't been thinking about it lately.
Here's the math I used to use, updated to reflect worst case OS scenario.
$40 billion - Debeers low-end claim
58,000 ----- divided by DeBeers acreage
----------
$689,655 -- claimed value of ONE ACRE
X 10% ----- let's just say our acres are worth only 10% as much
------------
$68,965 -----CMKX value per acre - 10% of a DeBeers acre
X 1,400,000 -- minimum number CMKX acres (could be 1.9mm)
-------------
$ 96,551,000,000 - theoretical value of CMKX claims at 10% per acre of DeBeers
800,000,000,000 - divided by worst case OS
-------------
$ 0.1206 ------ claims value per CMKX share
=======
Many have scoffed at the possibility of CMKX having such a high potential value based upon the acreage and such. But don't forget, while the big boys (DeBeers, et. al.) were scooping up 58,000 acres, our man was scooping up 25 to 50 times that number.
So while the numbers may seem daunting, and therefore perhaps a bit of a stretch, bear in mind that we ABSOLUTE FREAKING DWARF DeBeers in claims acreage and therefore the possibility exists that we could dwarf them in valuation, even valued at 10% of DeBeers per acre. That's right, even at 10% per acre. At that extreme low-end of the valuation range, CMKX could have a claims value of $965 billion for just the Saskatchewan claims alone. That's $0.12 per share worst case. And what if it's not worst case...
What if...
-CMKX claims are worth more than 10% of DeBeers claim per acre?
-We were to use the top-end of the DeBeers acreage valuation?
-CMKX has more than 1,400,000 acres (which they do)?
-CMKX had other assets, like a gold mine, a uranium JV?
-The OS is less than the worst case scenario?
-CMKX has been NSS'd out the wazoo?
-You get the idea!
If even one of these "what ifs" is true, then the $0.12 pps immediately becomes the low-end of the valuation range.
Once the market realizes this, once the big money moves in, once the NSS is dealt with (which the big money will force), sub-penny pps will be history.
JMHO, Gerbs