Post by fastwalker on Oct 1, 2004 20:25:42 GMT -5
Source: phaedrus19...by way of "Z"The MMs and MindGames
« Reply #1 on: Jul 19th, 2004, 06:47am » <br>
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Dear all,
IMO, Be careful with your shares over the next few weeks... There will, in all likelihood, be more than the usual amount of gameplaying by the MMs. Although their timeframe IMO is limited, they are pros. We have to be careful with our investments. phaedrus
Posted by: zeninvestor32
In reply to: None
Date:7/18/2004 8:29:17 PM
Post #of 55581
WHERE TO FROM HERE?
I will reiterate my earlier feelings. The market makers likely have clients (probably some very large hedge funds) who have now been served an official notice that August 20 is the first pain threshhold. This gives the market makers about 30 days to work their magic. These guys are pros. Their job now for their clients is to help their clients cover at the lowest price possible. They will now IMO control the ebb and flow of trading to facilitate this in the best way possible for their clients (additionally the MMs themselves are probably a bit worried about THEIR butts if this thing spirals out of control).
Accordingly, I expect still a lot of monkey business before we start seeing real pops. Agenda #1 from the MMs will IMO be to get the market to believe this news was "no big deal" and thus bait shareholders into selling. The bashing online will likely continue (albeit significantly weakened). I don't expect they will hold it down too long though since they know that literally any day OS could be realized and if it's low enough, it will put a sizable nail in their coffin. My guess is that Roger and Urban have many other signficant pieces of information that will "nudge" the market makers in the right direction should they try to stall out anything too long.
First area of interest will probably be .0005. Could be a 67% gain for many that bought at .0003 and a 400% gain returned to those that bought at .0001. I look for them to work that area as best they can. Next signficant area will obviously be .001 to .0012. A return to this area now puts EVERYONE that has bought in the last 60 days in the green. Many will want to take profits. TA "experts" will claim there will be a retracement (and there may be but only if the shorts decide it will be worth the risk). And many that bought on the recent downturn will want to lock in profits. Depending on how much more information is available to the public, there may be a signficant selloff at .001 simply because many people will want to lock in gains and are still in a "too good to be true" mentality. I look for them to test .001 considerably and possibly even try another rundown back to .0005. We'll see. Their time is limited. They just may not be able to do this.
After that, I have no idea how this will work. This is truly the first time I've ever seen a situation like this develop and I have no idea what to expect. Even the above is just guesswork. For all I know, we open at .001 tomorrow and never look back. But honestly, I expect the short position and MMs will act like the pros they are and work these next 30 days with an aggressive intensity to help their clients (and themselves) as best they can.
The market makers have one small advantage in this. Our fear and impatience just as always has been the case. Let's take someone that owns 10 million shares. Let's say this jumps to .005 next week. Well, hey, that's 50 grand!! Now let's say the MMs (who carefully monitor money flow and know precisely when buying has dipped and they can make a run) decide to drop it. Maybe even back down to .001. OH NO!!! My $50k is now $10k!! This feels terrible. But now when the stock eventually returns to .005, this shareholder is MUCH more in a frame of mind to "take 1/2 off the table just to be safe".
Ok, now let's ratchet the stakes up a bit. Let's say this thing gets to 5 cents! Now a shareholder with 10 million shares has 500 GRAND!!!! Buying momentarily dips, the MMs jump in and tank it back to a penny. OH MY GOD!!! MY 500 GRAND IS NOW 100 GRAND, OH PLEASE OH PLEASE GET BACK TO JUST 5 CENTS SO I CAN SELL. Do you see how this works? Do you see what is ahead?
The last 45 days have tested everyone's nerves. As the stakes increase, expect to be tested far greater than ever before. Right now, my guess is the MMs are mapping out their strategy. Whether it works or not, even they won't know. But they surely have a strategy IMO. One slight wrench in their plan of course is that more news from Urban/Roger could come at any minute. In fact, I expect it WILL come ... as "prods" and "pushes" are necessary to keep the MMs in line.
I personally don't expect much this week as I believe this first level of .0005 to .001 must be toyed with to see what's available here. But that's a full week out of the next 30 days that will be gone. Things should start picking up the pace after that IMO.
I'm excited. This will be fascinating. Today's PR IMO was truly the beginning. I believe this runs so much deeper than most anyone expects. The naked shorters literally finally got caught with their hand in a very serious cookie jar IMO. The penalty may take away a very, very, very significant percent of their profits through naked shorting over the past 8 years or so. As I said in an earlier post last week, I believe when this blows open, there will be a massive redistribution of wealth. I still believe that.
Z
As always, these are my personal opinions.
Hopefully nobody in here is investing anything but "fun" money that they can afford to gamble with.
