Post by fastwalker on Oct 16, 2004 23:04:56 GMT -5
New Theory: Death by MATH
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I don't want to kill you with math so I put a short version of the theory and a long version of the theory below.
SHORT THEORY:
MMs need more than 140,514,251 shares of GEMM to cover NSS of CMKX. Float of GEMM = 120,000,000.
Market Makers and broker dealers can not buy more than the float of GEMM to cover their dividend. Thus they must cover a portion of NSS of CMKX before the second GEMM Dividend record date. Once they start covering CMKX. Chain reaction.
LONG THEORY:
BAD GUYS NEED MORE GEMM
UCAD volume indication of Naked Short Share Position
(UCAD dividend announced 18 July 04)
UCAD total volume after announcement of dividend to CMKX = 6,401,529 over 64 trading days.
13,935 average daily volume of UCAD for 60 days prior to announcement.
13,935 x 64 = 891,840
6,401,529 - 891,840 = 5,509,689 = Possible shares bought to cover our UCAD dividend.
5,509,689 / .00000962 = 572,732,744,283 =
Possible naked short share position on CMKX based on UCAD volume anomaly over past 64 days.
GEMM volume indication of Naked Short Share Position
(GEMM dividend announced 2 Aug 04)
GEMM total volume since announcement of dividend to CMKX = 65,005,223 over 54 trading days.
GEMM average volume the 50 trading days prior to announcement is 164,248
164,248 x 54 = 8,869,392
65005223 - 8,869,392 = 56,135,831 possible shares bought to cover our first GEMM dividend.
56,135,831 divided by .00012267 = 457,616,621,831 Naked Short Share position on CMKX.
THEY STILL DONT HAVE ENOUGH GEMM to cover the FIRST GEMM dividend
UCAD indicated Naked Short Share Position is 572,732,744,283
GEMM indicated Naked Short Share Position is 457,616,621,831
572,732,744,283 - 457,616,621,831 = 115,116,122,452
That means that based on the UCAD indicator that the Market Makers and Broker Dealers still need to cover the GEMM dividend for 115,116,122,452 naked short shares of CMKX.
115,116,122,452 x .00012267 = 14,121,294
This means they need to buy 14,121,294 more shares of GEMM based on current numbers of UCAD.
If they keep buying up UCAD it means that all these numbers will increase.
OK. They need 14,121,294 more GEMM. They have 56,135,831 shares so far.
14,121,294 + 56,135,831 = Total shares need to cover the FIRST GEMM Dividend.
70,257,125 total shares needed to cover the first GEMM dividend.
You saw what the price did on GEMM based on the market makers needing this amount which is roughly over half of the float of GEMM.
If they need to buy 70,257,125 for the first GEMM dividend of 95,502,027, that means they will need to buy more than that to cover the NSS CMKX for the second GEMM dividend of 127,336,036.
70,257,125 x 2 = 140,514,251.
This means they must buy more than 140,514,251. shares of GEMM on the open market in order to cover for BOTH GEMM dividends.
*According to LRoss34470 conversation with Chris Hanneman --- GEMMS float is around 120 million.
THEY CAN't BUY MORE THAN THE FLOAT.
If they try... then GEMM shareholders can name their price for their shares cause there isn't enough to go around. Market Makers would get caught if they buy the whole float of GEMM cause suddenly no trading would be happening on GEMM.
ABSOLUTE DEMAND.
So they are forced to cover a portion of their CMKX. Once it begins, I dont think it will end until the covering of all CMKX is complete. Which means:
Between now and the RECORD DATE of GEMM the MMs will cover their NSS CMKX.
SECOND GEMM RECORD DATE: 29 OCTOBER 2004
There just might be a reason for a party.
Covering could start Monday.
-burns
comments? corrections? insults?
source:http://cmkxdiamond.proboards32.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1097980740
