Post by bluediamonds on Jul 3, 2004 17:12:44 GMT -5
zeninvestor: the share count is very, very low
Latest by Zen at IHUB
« Thread started on: Today at 1:22pm » <br>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIS IS WHY WE WAIT.
First read this:
www.ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01219&read=34697
Now, after reading that and being through what happened this week, I think it's safe to say that NOBODY knows what in the world is going on right now with respect to the share count except the company itself. The only thing I feel comfortable saying (still not 100% confirmed but my confidence level is high) is that CMKX decided to take away the share audit from ANY TA at this point and handle it on their own. Now, if in fact there was some forged certified letter or other false information played out, this is completely consistent with what I said. The shorts will be playing hardball and I said there would be some very trying, difficult days. Now at first, I was disappointed to hear that this was going in-house to handle the share count, considering I felt we needed a third party verification. But I think I have a better theory as to what is happening. I think the mechanical process of reviewing the books and determining the share count is pretty straightforward. What I believe CMKX will likely do (just my opinion, I have no knowledge of how they are actually handling this) is to assemble the time-consuming, mechanical process of inputting the numbers and ordering the files. They will in essence perform a self-audit. My belief is that when this is complete and everything is in order THEN they will hand this off probably in electronic form with the paper files to back it up to a third party TA who would merely have to corroborate the work done by CMKX to verify it -- a process I would guess is pretty quick.
This makes sense. If they announce another TA at this stage, you can expect a similar fiasco with either longs calling incessantly or with the shorts again attempting to sabotage the TA's efforst (if in fact that happened the first time). So why even bother doing that. Get everything in order. THEN hand it off. From handoff to press release should be fairly quick at that stage. This theory has an additional benefit, and one I don't like to raise but is real. The security of those documents is paramount. If in fact that certified letter was a fake to Pacific, it may have become obvious to Roger and CMKX that we are dealing with people that may in fact try anything here. Those documents, records and files need to be safe and secure until everything is formalized (my guess is that Roger has probably ordered a backup copy of every single document to be filed away in an undisclosed highly secure location - that's what I would do as well).
All this having been said, none of it surprises me. And while at first I was uncomfortable with the company handling the share audit, for all the reasons above, I now believe it is in the best interests of the company to take this in-house for now. One thing I would love to see (but is obviously up to Roger on whether it's worth handling this way) is that on the day of the share count press release, to see an SEC filing noting actual share count. Just a hope but we'll see if that happens.
As all of this comes together, I truly am getting more and more excited. There are many theories floating around about share count. I have listened to them all. Based on everything I have seen and heard, it is my PERSONAL OPINION that the share count is very, very low. I am conservatively going to say 10 billion. Less than 5 billion would not surprise me at all. And based on all the difficulties we're having getting the records straightened out for a share count audit, I'd say the shorts likely know that that share count number is their death knell. It's what they have pinned all their bashing on up to this point. And when that argument is no longer available, they will try to turn to bashing the property itself. Somehow I get the feeling that the company will have a pretty quick answer on that count too. But it will be too late. Once that share count is released and if it's really as low as I suspect, nobody will CARE about the property as the short squeeze itself would be center stage. The company valuation would simply be gravy.
And where does this all leave us. As I said, have a seat with some popcorn. Don't know when the movie will start but it will be spectacular to watch. I don't see a whole lot more due diligence that can be performed at this point. If it hasn't been pointed out by now, it likely isn't going to have any effect. You either understand all that is happening and believe it will go our way, or you don't. I do still strongly suspect more short/bashing efforts. We'll see how effective they are. For all the chaos this week, the stock was unmoved. I think there is a wall of buys at .0004 and .0003 that no short wants to have to sell through to make it worth their while. Those that need to sell some of their position to have "peace of mind" have done so or will do so. And that is fine. But it obviously hasn't been much, nor does anything seem to be inducing it (again, my "free rider" theory seems to be simply torching the shorts' ability to manipulate this stock further).
So let's let the action unfold. Give the company time to square away every last detail. And whether the fireworks begin this week or next, July 4th probably is a fairly pivotal weekend. I think things will now comfortably begin shifting into the longs' camp as we go forward.
We may be a part of history. I've never been more excited about a stock in my life.
Z
As always, these are my personal opinions.
Hopefully nobody in here is investing anything but "fun" money that they can afford to gamble with.
cmkx.proboards34.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1088886167
Latest by Zen at IHUB
« Thread started on: Today at 1:22pm » <br>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THIS IS WHY WE WAIT.
First read this:
www.ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01219&read=34697
Now, after reading that and being through what happened this week, I think it's safe to say that NOBODY knows what in the world is going on right now with respect to the share count except the company itself. The only thing I feel comfortable saying (still not 100% confirmed but my confidence level is high) is that CMKX decided to take away the share audit from ANY TA at this point and handle it on their own. Now, if in fact there was some forged certified letter or other false information played out, this is completely consistent with what I said. The shorts will be playing hardball and I said there would be some very trying, difficult days. Now at first, I was disappointed to hear that this was going in-house to handle the share count, considering I felt we needed a third party verification. But I think I have a better theory as to what is happening. I think the mechanical process of reviewing the books and determining the share count is pretty straightforward. What I believe CMKX will likely do (just my opinion, I have no knowledge of how they are actually handling this) is to assemble the time-consuming, mechanical process of inputting the numbers and ordering the files. They will in essence perform a self-audit. My belief is that when this is complete and everything is in order THEN they will hand this off probably in electronic form with the paper files to back it up to a third party TA who would merely have to corroborate the work done by CMKX to verify it -- a process I would guess is pretty quick.
This makes sense. If they announce another TA at this stage, you can expect a similar fiasco with either longs calling incessantly or with the shorts again attempting to sabotage the TA's efforst (if in fact that happened the first time). So why even bother doing that. Get everything in order. THEN hand it off. From handoff to press release should be fairly quick at that stage. This theory has an additional benefit, and one I don't like to raise but is real. The security of those documents is paramount. If in fact that certified letter was a fake to Pacific, it may have become obvious to Roger and CMKX that we are dealing with people that may in fact try anything here. Those documents, records and files need to be safe and secure until everything is formalized (my guess is that Roger has probably ordered a backup copy of every single document to be filed away in an undisclosed highly secure location - that's what I would do as well).
All this having been said, none of it surprises me. And while at first I was uncomfortable with the company handling the share audit, for all the reasons above, I now believe it is in the best interests of the company to take this in-house for now. One thing I would love to see (but is obviously up to Roger on whether it's worth handling this way) is that on the day of the share count press release, to see an SEC filing noting actual share count. Just a hope but we'll see if that happens.
As all of this comes together, I truly am getting more and more excited. There are many theories floating around about share count. I have listened to them all. Based on everything I have seen and heard, it is my PERSONAL OPINION that the share count is very, very low. I am conservatively going to say 10 billion. Less than 5 billion would not surprise me at all. And based on all the difficulties we're having getting the records straightened out for a share count audit, I'd say the shorts likely know that that share count number is their death knell. It's what they have pinned all their bashing on up to this point. And when that argument is no longer available, they will try to turn to bashing the property itself. Somehow I get the feeling that the company will have a pretty quick answer on that count too. But it will be too late. Once that share count is released and if it's really as low as I suspect, nobody will CARE about the property as the short squeeze itself would be center stage. The company valuation would simply be gravy.
And where does this all leave us. As I said, have a seat with some popcorn. Don't know when the movie will start but it will be spectacular to watch. I don't see a whole lot more due diligence that can be performed at this point. If it hasn't been pointed out by now, it likely isn't going to have any effect. You either understand all that is happening and believe it will go our way, or you don't. I do still strongly suspect more short/bashing efforts. We'll see how effective they are. For all the chaos this week, the stock was unmoved. I think there is a wall of buys at .0004 and .0003 that no short wants to have to sell through to make it worth their while. Those that need to sell some of their position to have "peace of mind" have done so or will do so. And that is fine. But it obviously hasn't been much, nor does anything seem to be inducing it (again, my "free rider" theory seems to be simply torching the shorts' ability to manipulate this stock further).
So let's let the action unfold. Give the company time to square away every last detail. And whether the fireworks begin this week or next, July 4th probably is a fairly pivotal weekend. I think things will now comfortably begin shifting into the longs' camp as we go forward.
We may be a part of history. I've never been more excited about a stock in my life.
Z
As always, these are my personal opinions.
Hopefully nobody in here is investing anything but "fun" money that they can afford to gamble with.
cmkx.proboards34.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1088886167